Greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things
Friday, September 2, 2022
Today's hot news: Michael Burry warned the biggest market bubble in history would end with the 'mother of all crashes.
Hi everybody, Joe Hillner with Your Home Sold Guaranteed Realty, where we guarantee the sale of your home or I'll buy it!
Ok, so every week, I share market data to keep you informed with the local real estate market.
Here is this week’s Boca Market Watch.
First, Single Family Homes:
This past week, 62 new listings, average, and ranging in price from $445K to $16.25M! 13 homes back on the market, while 71 homes listed took a price decrease, that's a bunch, and 4 sellers raised their asking price. And like the the last couple of weeks, only 34 different properties under contract, and 22 going pending, not good at all! 43 homes were unsuccessful in selling and were taken off the market or the listing expired outright, the highest I've seen in a couple years. And a new normal week for sales with 55 homes sold, ranging from $409K to $6.3M!Next up, Condos and Townhomes:
56 new listings, not great, and ranging from $125 Grand to $3.8 Million. 11 units came back on the market, 74 properties with a price decrease, wow, and 5 sellers with an increase. And another light week with 45 different properties under contract, and 35 going pending, And 33 condos or townhomes were unsuccessful in selling and were taken off the market or the listing expired. 66 closed sales this week, not too bad, and ranging in price from $95K to $4.9M.Here's what's making news right now.
'The Big Short' investor Michael Burry recently warned that the biggest stock market bubble in history would end with the 'mother of all crashes.' He just hinted the collapse is now underway, oh boy!Michael Burry sounded the alarm on the "greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things" last summer, and cautioned investors buying into the hype that they were headed for the "mother of all crashes."
Doomsday is finally here, he hinted in a tweet this week.
He shared a screenshot of a S&P 500 chart, showing the benchmark stock-market index has tumbled 18% from its December peak, despite several blistering rallies this year.
"And yet I keep getting asked 'when is the crash?' It's already begun, he says. Burry suggested in May that the S&P 500 could drop as low as 1,900 points, or another 53%, over the next few years, based on how past crashes have played out. Moreover, he has dismissed the rebounds in stocks this year as bear-market rallies or "dead cat bounces" — temporary reprieves along the road to inevitable disaster.
His stance seems to be that the market boom is over, stocks are headed downward, and any rallies will prove short-lived.
Jeremy Grantham, another doomsayer investor and market historian, also shrugged off the recent upturn in stocks as a bear market rally, in a new research note titled "Entering the Superbubble's Final Act."
Like Burry, he warned of an "unprecedentedly dangerous mix" of hugely overpriced assets, commodity-price shocks, and a Federal Reserve intent on curbing inflation by cooling the economy.
Since this is a real estate market watch, you may ask, "What's the correlation? Where's the linkage?" Well, we've already seen it take a huge bite out the luxury market. All of those potential buyers who were feeling flush with cash and wealthier than they'd ever been, suddenly saw their portfolios take a big hit.
They're typically cash buyers, so the spike in interest rates didn't affect them. But that paper loss caused by the stock market dips made them pull back into a wait and watch mode, or they just decided to curtail a purchase altogether.
As a consequence, we saw our luxury market, say $3Million and up, go from homes selling in days for $200 - $500K over asking, to homes languishing on the market and 2 out 3 having to lower their prices. It doesn't mean that prices are dropping yet, just that they had to re-price to where they would've started in a normal market. Which is kind of where we are right now.
We still have a significant imbalance between the number of buyers and sellers, so it's still a seller's market. But for how long? With the Fed intent on fighting inflation by cooling the housing market, we can only hope for the so called soft landing. I am starting to get a little less optimistic about it right now, but whatever happens, I'll be here to report how it affects us.
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Boca Raton Market Watch
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